The Baseline News
31 March
Facts first. Bias removed. Form your own judgement.
Today’s Headlines
The Iran war enters day 32 as US-Israeli strikes hit Tehran and Isfahan, Iran attacks a Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai, and crude oil breaches $100 a barrel.
Trump tells the UK and France to "go get your own oil," warning the US "won't be there to help you anymore."
King Charles confirms a late-April state visit to Washington amid Trump's repeated public insults toward Britain.
No Kings protests on March 28 drew an estimated 8 to 9 million people worldwide, the largest single-day protest in American history. In London, a parallel march drew up to half a million.
At least 70 people were killed in a gang massacre in Haiti's Artibonite region over the weekend.
Word of the Day: Lackadaisical
Quote of the Day:
The Baseline Deep Dive
Iran War Day 32: Strikes, Tankers and "Go Get Your Own Oil"
What’s Actually Happened:
US and Israeli forces struck Tehran and Isfahan overnight on March 30-31, with Israel hitting the Imam Hossein University in Tehran, which it claims was used for weapons research. A strike on Mahallat on March 30 killed 11 and injured 15.
Iran retaliated by striking a fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker, the Al-Salmi, at Dubai port. No casualties were reported, but the attack pushed US crude above $100 for the first time since 2022, and American petrol crossed $4 a gallon.
NATO intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile over Turkey, the fourth such interception since the war began. Secretary of State Rubio told Al Jazeera that US objectives would be achieved "in weeks, not months." Iran's leadership says it deeply distrusts Washington and is not preparing to negotiate.
This morning, Trump also posted on Truth Social, telling the UK and France to "go get your own oil" from the Strait of Hormuz, warning the US "won't be there to help you anymore." He called France "VERY UNHELPFUL" for blocking US military aircraft from its airspace and told Britain to "get some courage." The comments landed as the UK government was quietly drawing up emergency fuel rationing plans.
What’s Been Said:
Pro-war / US framing - Fox News, The Hill, US Central Command
Supporters argue the campaign is working. Rubio's "weeks, not months" timeline has been welcomed by hawks as evidence of a clear strategy. Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are privately urging Trump to keep fighting until Iran is "decisively defeated."
On the allies’ question, many on the right back Trump's frustration, arguing Europe has benefited from US-secured energy supplies for decades without contributing proportionately.
Critical framing - Al Jazeera, The Guardian, CNBC, Financial Times
Critics point to over 200 US soldiers filing complaints against officers for using religious rhetoric to justify the war, Spain closing its airspace to US military planes, and Egypt's president publicly begging Trump to stop the conflict.
On the "go get your own oil" comments, European governments argue the US chose to start this war and that allies are paying the economic price for that decision. The EU has stated plainly that "this is not Europe's war."
Why This Matters:
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil, and its effective closure is hitting countries that have nothing to do with the conflict. Norway is cutting fuel taxes. Bangladesh is ordering civil servants to turn off lights. The UK is planning for potential diesel rationing.
Trump's comments have deepened a serious fracture in the Western alliance, leaving Britain in a particularly awkward position: refusing to join the war, facing fuel shortages, being publicly mocked by Washington, and preparing to send its King there. Whether Rubio's "weeks, not months" reflects genuine military confidence or political messaging is the question that will define what comes next.
The Baseline:
Does this war reshape the globe’s strategic alliances? Will Europe/The Gulf rely as heavily on the US? What does this mean?
At what point does the cost of this conflict, felt by ordinary people worldwide, outweigh the stated strategic objectives?
Are you feeling the impacts of the war yet?
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No Kings: The Protests That Went Global
What’s Actually Happened:
An estimated 8 to 9 million people took part in more than 3,300 No Kings protest events across the US, making it the largest single-day protest in American history. The flagship rally in Minnesota drew 100,000 people, with Bruce Springsteen, Bernie Sanders and Tim Walz among the speakers.
Protests reached deeply into conservative-leaning states, including Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Organisers cited opposition to the Iran war, ICE operations, democratic backsliding and the suppression of the Epstein files.
In London, the Together Alliance, a coalition of around 500 organisations, marched from Park Lane to Whitehall. Organisers claimed half a million attended; the Metropolitan Police estimated 50,000. Speakers included Jeremy Corbyn, Andy Burnham and Zack Polanski. The London march was framed primarily around opposition to the domestic far right and Reform UK, though anti-Trump and anti-war sentiment ran throughout.
What’s Been Said:
Critical of the protests - Fox News, GB News, White House press secretary Critics of the No Kings protests labelled them as "performative outreach." Conservative commentators questioned the coherence of a movement opposing "kings" while marching in a monarchy, and argued that the protests have produced no concrete political change. GB News described the London march as a left-wing exercise disconnected from the real concerns of ordinary British people.
Supportive - The Guardian, BBC, Amnesty UK, Al Jazeera Amnesty UK
Supporters called the London march "historic." In the US, commentators highlighted the protests' reach into Republican-leaning states as evidence that opposition to Trump extends well beyond the traditional liberal base. The scale and geographic spread were widely described as unprecedented.
Why This Matters:
Eight to nine million people on the streets in a single day is not a fringe event. In the UK, the march reflects genuine anxiety about the rise of Reform UK and a far right that Hope Not Hate has described as "bigger, bolder and more extreme than ever before."
In the US, the protests signal that the Iran war is generating high domestic political costs for the Trump administration. Whether that translates into electoral consequences in the midterms later this year is the question that matters most.
The Baseline:
Can protests of this scale actually create change? Do they influence government policy, or do they serve a different purpose?
Is the rise of the right across the globe a temporary political moment or a structural shift?
What does it mean that the No Kings protests reached deeply into conservative-leaning American states?
Haiti: 70 Killed as Gangs Tighten Their Grip
What’s Actually Happened:
In the early hours of Sunday, March 29, Gran Grif gang members stormed communities around Haiti's main agricultural region. The attack continued into Monday. Human rights group Defenseurs Plus estimated at least 70 killed, 30 injured, 50 houses burned, and 6,000 people displaced. Official police figures put the death toll at 16. The UN called for a thorough investigation, with its own estimates ranging from 10 to 80 dead.
Gran Grif leader Luckson Elan reportedly described the attack as retaliation against a rival gang. The massacre follows a UN Human Rights Office report from March 24, finding that at least 5,519 people were killed in Haiti between March 2025 and January 2026, with gangs now controlling key road and sea routes and expanding well beyond Port-au-Prince. The US this month offered a $3 million reward for information on Gran Grif's finances.
What’s Been Said:
Humanitarian framing - UN, Reuters, The Guardian, Defenseurs Plus Humanitarians described the attack as evidence of "a complete abdication of responsibility by the authorities." UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk warned that impunity "undermines the trust of the people" and called for stricter rule of law.
Critics of the international response argue the newly authorised UN Gang Suppression Force is too slow to deploy and too limited in scope to make a meaningful difference.
Government/security framing - Haitian government, US State Department The Haitian government pointed to 32 anti-gang raids and 43 suspected gang members killed in the first quarter of 2026 as evidence of progress. The US framed its $3 million reward as a meaningful step, though critics note it is a modest intervention given the scale of the crisis.
Why This Matters:
One in four Haitians now lives in an area controlled by criminal gangs. Over 1.4 million people have been displaced. The Artibonite region is Haiti's breadbasket, and gang control of its roads and land is turning a security crisis into a food crisis.
With global attention consumed by the Iran war, Haiti risks disappearing from the international agenda entirely. The gap between the official death toll of 16 and the human rights estimate of 70 is itself telling: the Haitian state's capacity to document what is happening to its own people is severely compromised.
The Baseline:
Why has the international community repeatedly failed to stabilise Haiti, and what would an effective response actually look like?
Who holds responsibility for helping Haiti? Why aren’t neighbours stepping in? Should it always be left to Western states to help out?
You’ve now reflected on these events, how they made you feel, what judgments you formed, and why.
That process is building your political judgement.
— The Baseline


