The Baseline News
1 February
Facts first. Bias removed. Form your own judgement.
Today’s Headlines
Ukraine war latest & fresh rounds of talks scheduled for February, with expectations kept deliberately low.
Humanitarian routes in Gaza reopen after years of closure, allowing aid and limited movement under heavy supervision.
Iran warns it would trigger a wider regional war if the United States carries out direct military strikes.
The hidden story- Homelessness in the UK continues to rise, with over 300,000 sleeping rough.
Ukraine War- Talks Resume, Fighting Continues
What’s Actually Happened:
Talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. will resume in the Middle East after previous rounds yielded little change. Both sides have kept fighting while diplomats try to find common ground. Ukraine wants peace that doesn’t give up the territory it controls. Russia wants conditions tied to the territory it occupies. The result is ongoing negotiation without a ceasefire. Russia also continues to attack crucial Ukrainian energy infrastructure amid freezing temperatures, plunging thousands into homes without heating.
What’s Been Said:
Western Framing - Sky News, Atlantic Council
Western governments frame these talks as a necessary and constructive step, even if breakthroughs are unlikely immediately. Officials emphasise that negotiations must balance Ukrainian sovereignty and security guarantees with any pause in fighting, and they outline the importance of continued support- diplomatic, financial, and military for Ukraine. Many in the West also stress that dialogue demonstrates commitment to a negotiated end to the war, even as clashes continue.
Russian Perspective - Russia Matters, Modern Diplomacy
From Moscow’s point of view, talks continue, but differences remain. Russian officials have reiterated that any ceasefire or settlement must reflect “realities on the ground,” including their territorial claims. Polling inside Russia also shows a hardened public attitude, with many Russians preferring escalation over concessions if peace terms require major compromises. The Kremlin also continues military operations while maintaining that negotiations are still possible.
Why This Matters:
These talks matter because they are one of the few formal efforts to move toward an end to a war that has reshaped European security. How negotiations handle key issues- borders, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms- will affect whether the fighting continues, escalates, or eventually winds down. The war impacts millions of lives, global markets, and international alliances, so even the slightest diplomacy carries weight far beyond the fighting
The Baseline:
Are talks a sign of progress or simply damage control?
If Ukraine cede territory, will this be the last we hear of the ‘Ukraine War’?
What’s more important- Territory or continued conflict and loss of life?
Humanitarian Routes Open in Gaza
What’s Actually Happened:
After nearly two years of closure, the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt was allowed to open again for the first time in a long period. People on foot were able to move in and out, and a handful of aid trucks and ambulances lined up to enter Gaza. The reopening followed negotiations involving Israel, Egypt, and international partners who pressed for greater humanitarian access. However, the opening was limited in scope, with strict security checks and controlled movement, rather than full, unrestricted access.
What’s Been Said:
Supporter’s Perspective - ITV News, UNOPS Maritime Corridor
Supporters of the reopening say it’s a critical breakthrough for civilians in Gaza, where humanitarian needs remain extreme. After years of blockade and war-related restrictions, any opening of a major crossing is seen as a lifeline for families, health care access, and movement for work or medical care. International aid agencies also view it as a potential gateway for more consistent deliveries of food, water, medicine, and other life-saving supplies, building on work already underway through other corridors and maritime channels.
Sceptical Perspective - The UN, Plan International
Sceptics warn that while the crossing opening is symbolic, it may not immediately fix the humanitarian crisis. Previous attempts to open routes and corridors were plagued by logistical hurdles, security concerns, and looting of aid convoys. Critics note that limited access for people doesn’t automatically mean a surge in trucks carrying food and medical supplies, and years of closure have deepened shortages that will take sustained effort to address. They also point to past incidents where planned humanitarian corridors were disrupted by violence or insecurity.
Why This Matters:
The partial reopening of Rafah, the only major land link between Gaza and the outside world, is a milestone after nearly two years of isolation. For millions of people facing hunger, medical shortages, and limited movement, even limited access offers hope. But real relief will depend on whether sustained, secure humanitarian routes can deliver enough aid and whether political and security obstacles can be overcome
The Baseline:
Is access a humanitarian right or a political tool?
Should aid flow, regardless of whether bad actors benefit from it?
What happens when aid depends on calm?
Iran Warns of Wider Regional War
What’s Actually Happened:
Iranian leaders have publicly warned that any U.S. or Israeli military strike could trigger a wider regional war, as tensions rise across the Middle East. These warnings followed increased U.S. military deployments, including naval forces and aircraft positioned near the region, and warnings from Washington about strikes. At the same time, Iran has not announced any direct military action of its own. Instead, both sides are signalling strength through statements and positioning, while US officials claim the Iranians are negotiating, in order to prevent any escalation, with the Iranian Nuclear programme in main focus.
What’s Been Said:
Iranian Perspective - AzerNews, Al-monitor, Gulf News
Iran’s Supreme Leader has warned that if the United States launches a military attack on Iran, it would not be confined to Iran alone and could escalate into a regional war affecting many Middle East countries. Iranian officials frame their stance as defensive, saying Tehran does not want to start a war, but will respond strongly to any attack. This warning comes as the U.S. has deployed naval and military assets to the region, including an aircraft carrier strike group. Iran dismisses these deployments as intimidation and says its people will not be scared by threats.
Western Perspective - Reuters, Al Jazeera
The military buildup in the Middle East is meant to deter further escalation and protect interests and allies, not to provoke conflict. The U.S., however, has repeatedly said all options are on the table if Iran does not negotiate on key issues, including its nuclear program and support for proxy groups. Western officials also describe engagement, including diplomatic channels, as aimed at preventing war, even as rhetoric remains heated. While they acknowledge Iran’s warnings, the official position is that Tehran’s leaders should reduce tensions and engage in dialogue to avoid broader conflict.
Why This Matters:
These warnings matter because they show how quickly tensions can spiral between Iran and the U.S. into a much larger regional conflict. Both sides are signalling strength, Iran by threatening broad retaliation, and the U.S. by positioning military forces and keeping diplomatic options open. The concern among analysts and regional governments is that miscommunication, missteps, or escalation could draw in neighbours and allies, turning a bilateral dispute into a wider crisis.
The Baseline:
Should any nation be allowed to build a nuclear programme?
How would a wider conflict in the Gulf affect you? Think oil, price hikes. What happened in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine? Did that affect you?
Is the US right to act this way? Is Iran right to react this way?
The Forgotten Story- Homelessness in the UK
What’s Actually Happened:
Homelessness in the UK is rising sharply. Latest government figures show the number of households assessed as homeless increased by over 12% in the past year, with nearly 180,000 households officially homeless and in need of help by councils. Rough sleeping has also climbed, with around 4,667 people sleeping on the streets in England on a single night, up about 20% from the previous year. In London alone, record numbers of people, including almost 90,000 children, are living in temporary accommodation because there is nowhere permanent to go, and councils are spending millions daily just to house them.
What’s Been Said:
Domestic Reporting - ITV News, Crisis Homelessness Report
UK charities, councils, and media have described homelessness as a crisis that is “enormous” and worsening. Frontline organisations report that many people are newly rough sleeping after losing private rentals, and that the supply of social and affordable homes has fallen far behind demand. In some cases, hotels have turned away homeless people even when rooms were paid for, highlighting systemic problems. London councils say homelessness is now the single biggest financial risk they face, with spiralling costs for temporary housing draining local budgets.
Why This Matters:
Homelessness is not just a social problem; it affects children’s education, family stability, health, and public services. Long waits in temporary accommodation can disrupt schooling and work, and unsafe street conditions increase risks of illness and death. The struggle to find affordable housing also contributes to broader pressures on the private rental market and local authority finances, meaning fewer resources for other essential services. A housing system that pushes people into instability erodes social safety nets and increases inequality.
The Baseline:
Why is homelessness rising even in wealthy nations?
Who is most affected and why?
Can prevention be more effective (and less expensive) than crisis response?
You’ve now reflected on these events, how they made you feel, what judgments you formed, and why.
That process is building your political judgement.
— The Baseline