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The Baseline News
3 March

Facts first. Bias removed. Form your own judgement.

Today’s Headlines

  • UK deploys HMS Dragon destroyer to Cyprus after RAF Akrotiri hit by Iranian drone.

  • US and Israel strike 1,700+ targets in Iran; death toll reaches 787; Iran closes Strait of Hormuz and retaliates across Gulf.

  • Trump criticises Starmer as "not Churchill" for refusing UK base access; suspends trade with Spain.

  • Texas holds record-breaking $122m Senate primary- Democrats look to potentially win.

  • Spain reports possible human-to-human swine flu transmission to WHO; officials say risk is "very low."

Word of the Day: Clandestine

Quote of the Day:

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.

Marcus Aurelius

The Baseline Deep Dive

US-Israel War on Iran: Day Four of Intensive Strikes

What’s Actually Happened:

US Central Command reported 1,700+ targets struck, including missile sites, naval vessels, and command centres. Iran's Red Crescent reported 787 deaths. In response, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz (through which 15% of global oil passes) and launched retaliatory strikes across the Gulf. An airstrike on a girls' school in Minab killed 168 people, including dozens of children. The UAE reported over 1,000 attacks; the US evacuated non-emergency staff from multiple Gulf nations. France deployed its aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Mediterranean.

What’s Been Said:

Supportive Framing - Fox News, The Sun, Israeli officials, Trump administration
Supporters frame strikes as a necessary defence against Iranian aggression and nuclear threats. They argue Iran posed an imminent danger and was preparing to attack first. Israeli officials claim precision targeting of military facilities. Proponents emphasise Iran's Strait closure and retaliatory strikes as evidence justifying the initial action.

Critical Framing - The Guardian, Al Jazeera, humanitarian groups
Critics question the war's justification, noting the Trump administration hasn't settled on consistent reasons. They highlight civilian casualties, particularly the school bombing, as disproportionate harm. Humanitarian organisations warn of potential war crimes. Critics argue that diplomatic alternatives weren't exhausted and draw parallels to the 2003 Iraq invasion.

Why This Matters:

The Strait of Hormuz closure threatens global energy supplies and could trigger worldwide economic disruption. Civilian casualties raise serious humanitarian law questions. The conflict tests NATO cohesion—the UK's initial refusal strained US-UK relations. Multiple nations and proxy forces involved suggest escalation risk. The humanitarian crisis and potential Iranian civil unrest create long-term instability.

The Baseline:

  • Does war outline the different value we place on the deaths of those in other countries? (Eg: 5 Iranians shot dead vs 5 Brits shot dead)

  • Should US allies get involved in the war?

  • Does military action reduce or increase future conflict likelihood?

Trump's Criticism of Starmer: Alliance Tensions

What’s Actually Happened:

Trump publicly criticised UK PM Starmer multiple times, calling him "not Winston Churchill" for initially refusing to allow US use of RAF Akrotiri and Diego Garcia for Iran strikes. Starmer stated the decision reflected Britain's national interest and the bases were "unsuitable." Trump said he was "not happy with the UK." The UK subsequently deployed HMS Dragon to Cyprus to defend RAF Akrotiri after it was targeted by Iranian drones. Trump also suspended all trade with Spain over its refusal to support the strikes.

What’s Been Said:

Conservative Framing - Fox News, The Sun, Trump officials
Trump supporters argue the UK should have immediately backed US action as a key ally. They frame Starmer's hesitation as weakness, comparing him unfavourably to Churchill. Some argue the UK is shirking NATO responsibilities and damaging the transatlantic partnership.

Labour/UK Framing - BBC, The Guardian, Labour MPs
Starmer's defenders argue a PM's duty is independent judgment of national interest, not automatic deference to US requests. They note the UK ultimately supported defensive measures and that the decision preceded the drone attack. They argue independent foreign policy is a strength, not a weakness.

Why This Matters:

This reveals tensions within the Western alliance at a critical moment. It questions whether the US-UK "special relationship" requires automatic military alignment or allows independent judgment. Trump's willingness to publicly criticise and threaten trade sanctions suggests a transactional approach to alliances that could undermine NATO cohesion. The incident demonstrates how military decisions become entangled with political relationships.

The Baseline:

  • Should allies automatically support military action?

  • Do you agree with the UK’s apprehension to letting US use their bases?

  • How could this affect the ‘special relationship’ in the long-term? Is the ‘special relationship’ even still relevant today?

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Texas Midterm Primaries: Record-Breaking Senate Races

Context:

What are midterms? The US president serves a four-year term. Midterm elections occur halfway through (in 2026), when voters elect all 435 House members and one-third of the 100 Senate seats. Midterms are seen as a referendum on the sitting president's performance.

What are primaries? Primaries are internal party elections where voters select which candidate will represent their party in the general election. Only registered party members can vote. The winning primary candidate then faces the opposing party's nominee in November's general election. If no candidate wins over 50% in a primary, the top two advance to a runoff.

What’s Actually Happened:

Texas held primary elections on Tuesday, March 3, kicking off the 2026 midterm cycle. The Republican Senate primary features incumbent John Cornyn (seeking his fifth term since 2002) facing challenges from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and US Representative Wesley Hunt. The race has become the most expensive Senate primary on record, with $122m spent in ads. Paxton, a conservative firebrand who led efforts to overturn the 2020 election and expand religion in schools, has surged in recent polling. Trump notably did not endorse a candidate. If no candidate wins over 50%, the top two advance to a May 26 runoff. The Democratic primary pits US Representative Jasmine Crockett against state representative James Talarico in a strategic divide over campaign approach. North Carolina's primaries also drew significant attention, with Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley in early polling for the open Senate seat.

Why This Matters:

Texas is crucial to national politics; it's the second-largest state and a Republican stronghold, but demographics are shifting. The primary results will reveal whether Trump's MAGA movement can challenge establishment Republicans even in conservative strongholds. The race serves as a bellwether for voter sentiment on Trump's first-year policies. A Paxton victory would signal MAGA strength; a Cornyn win would suggest establishment resilience. The Democratic primary outcome will determine whether Democrats run a national-profile candidate (Crockett) or a grassroots organiser (Talarico) against the Republican nominee. The general election could determine Senate control.

The Baseline:

  • Does Trump's MAGA movement represent the future of the Republican Party or a temporary faction?

  • What do you think will happen within the Republican Party post-Trump?

  • Do you agree with the two-party system? How might it be improved?

You’ve now reflected on these events, how they made you feel, what judgments you formed, and why.

That process is building your political judgement.

The Baseline

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