In partnership with

The Baseline News
10 March

Facts first. Bias removed. Form your own judgement.

Today’s Headlines

  • US-Israel war on Iran enters Day 11 as Tehran endures its worst night of strikes, with over 1,255 Iranians reported killed and Iran's new Supreme Leader vowing to fight on.

  • Labour's scrapping of jury trials for offences carrying sentences under three years, despite a backbench rebellion and lawyers marching on Parliament.

  • Russia emerges as a strategic and financial beneficiary of the Iran war, profiting from surging oil prices while providing Iran with intelligence on US military targets.

  • Sudan's civil war intensifies in Kordofan as the SAF retakes territory from the RSF, while drone strikes on civilian areas continue and the UN warns of worsening famine affecting 21 million people.

Word of the Day: Resplendent

Quote of the Day:

A mind needs books as a sword needs a whetstone if it is to keep its edge

Tyrion Lannister

Turn AI Into Your Income Stream

The AI economy is booming, and smart entrepreneurs are already profiting. Subscribe to Mindstream and get instant access to 200+ proven strategies to monetize AI tools like ChatGPT, Midjourney, and more. From content creation to automation services, discover actionable ways to build your AI-powered income. No coding required, just practical strategies that work.

The Baseline Deep Dive

Iran War - Day 11: Strikes Intensify

What’s Actually Happened:

Tehran endured its worst night of bombardment since the war began, with joint US-Israeli strikes targeting IRGC air bases, oil facilities, and missile infrastructure. A strike on residential buildings in eastern Tehran killed at least 40 people, while a separate attack on Arak killed five more, bringing Iran's total reported death toll to over 1,255, with around 10,000 injured.

Trump told Republican lawmakers the US has struck more than 5,000 targets and claimed the destruction of Iran's navy, air force, and 80–90% of its missile launchers, saying the war would end "pretty quickly", though some of his own advisers are privately urging him to find an exit ramp.

Iran's new Supreme Leader, backed by mass rallies in Tehran, has vowed to fight on, with the Foreign Minister stating Iran will continue "as long as necessary." Iran has simultaneously expanded retaliatory strikes across the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain all intercepting Iranian missiles and drones on Tuesday, a woman was killed in Bahrain, and Turkey reported the first-ever interception of an Iranian ballistic missile in NATO airspace.

What’s Been Said:

Right-wing Framing - Fox News, FDD, Conservative and pro-administration voices
Some conservatives have framed Operation Epic Fury as a decisive, long-overdue assertion of American power against a regime that posed a nuclear threat to Israel and regional stability. Fox News analysts, including retired General Jack Keane, have praised the campaign's strategic achievements, arguing that experts who predicted the strikes would isolate America have been proven wrong. Some MAGA-aligned commentators have raised concerns about whether open-ended Middle Eastern military engagement aligns with "America First" principles, but the mainstream conservative consensus has been to support the campaign while pressing for a clear definition of victory.

Left-wing Framing - The Guardian, The Nation, PBS NewsHour, Democracy Now!
Left-leaning outlets have been sharply critical on multiple fronts: civilian casualties, the absence of congressional authorisation, and the broader strategic logic of the campaign. ‘The Nation’ highlighted the failure of top Democratic leaders to clearly oppose the war, while Democrats have filed new War Powers resolutions demanding Trump's national security team testify before Congress. Progressive commentators have warned that bombing Iran will strengthen rather than weaken the regime, a view echoed by Iranians living in the UK who wrote to Prime Minister Starmer urging restraint. PBS polling found a majority of Americans now oppose the military action, a figure growing as fuel prices surge.

Why This Matters:

The Iran war has rapidly become the defining geopolitical event of 2026, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggering a global energy shock that is driving stagflation fears, forcing emergency fuel measures from the Philippines to South Korea, and threatening to reshape global oil flows in ways not seen for decades. Beyond the economics, the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, rather than a moderate, signals the regime intends to fight on, raising serious questions about whether the US can achieve its stated goals before domestic political pressure and international isolation force a rethink. The war's ripple effects are also redrawing global alliances: Russia is profiting and providing covert support to Iran, Ukraine risks being sidelined, and Europe faces renewed energy vulnerability, making this far more than a regional conflict.

The Baseline:

  • Is the destruction of Iran's military infrastructure a sufficient definition of "victory," given that a new, defiant Supreme Leader is already in place?

  • Should Congress (and allies) have been given a formal vote before Operation Epic Fury was launched, and does it matter now that the war is already underway?

Labour's Jury Trial Reforms Pass First Vote…

What’s Actually Happened:

The Courts and Tribunals Bill passed its second reading in the House of Commons by 304 votes to 203, clearing its first parliamentary hurdle despite a significant internal Labour rebellion. The bill, introduced by Justice Secretary David Lammy, scraps jury trials for all offences carrying a likely sentence of under three years, while retaining them for serious crimes including murder, rape, and people trafficking. Ten Labour MPs voted against outright, including John McDonnell and Nadia Whittome, while approximately 90 abstained, and thousands of lawyers marched on Parliament in protest. Lammy argued the reforms are essential to tackle a backlog of nearly 80,000 Crown Court cases, warning it could reach 200,000 by 2035 without action, while the Society of Labour Lawyers, reportedly blocked by ministers from briefing MPs, called the plans a "terrible mistake" and "unworkable."

What’s Been Said:

Right-wing Framing - The Daily Mail, The Sun, Conservative Party, Nick Timothy
The Conservatives have attacked the bill from two angles: constitutional overreach and lack of democratic mandate. Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy accused Lammy of rushing legislation through Parliament with no prior consultation, while the Daily Mail labelled the reforms "soft justice." Conservatives have pointed out that Labour's 2024 manifesto contained no mention of jury reform, arguing the government is using a backlog, partly of its own making, as cover for a constitutional change voters never approved.

Left-wing Framing - The Guardian, New Statesman, Labour rebels, Criminal Bar Association
Opposition from the left has focused on racial inequality and civil liberties, with rebel MP Nadia Whittome describing the bill as a "short-termist cost-cutting measure that will further entrench discrimination," noting that ethnic minorities consistently report fairer outcomes from juries than from judges alone. The Criminal Bar Association was unequivocal: "Juries work, they do their job superbly, and without bias. Juries have not caused the backlog." The Guardian highlighted the blocking of the Society of Labour Lawyers as evidence of a government prioritising political management over genuine deliberation.

Why This Matters:

The right to trial by jury is one of the oldest protections in English law, rooted in the Magna Carta and described by Lord Devlin as "the lamp that shows that freedom lives", and removing it, even for lower-level offences, is a structural constitutional change being made without a manifesto mandate, at speed, and against the advice of the government's own affiliated lawyers. The practical stakes cut both ways: if the reforms work, they could deliver justice to tens of thousands of victims currently waiting years for their day in court; if critics are right that underfunding, not jury trials, caused the backlog, the reforms will fail to deliver efficiency gains while permanently diminishing defendants' rights. With the bill facing further parliamentary stages and a restless Labour backbench, the government's majority is far from guaranteed.

The Baseline:

  • Should a reform of this magnitude require an explicit manifesto commitment before a government can implement it?

  • Is a court backlog sufficient justification for removing a constitutional right that has existed for over 800 years?

Sudan: The Forgotten War Intensifies

What’s Actually Happened:

Sudan's civil war, approaching its third year, has escalated sharply even as global attention has shifted almost entirely to Iran. On 8 March, a Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) drone strike on a fuel market in Ed Daein, East Darfur, killed at least six civilians and wounded more than 12, triggering fires that destroyed the market entirely. In a significant counter-offensive, the SAF announced that it had retaken the city of Bara in North Kordofan and secured the state capital El Obeid, destroying 32 RSF combat vehicles in the process, a reversal after months of RSF advances that culminated in the fall of El Fasher in October 2025, which the UN said bore "all the hallmarks of genocide." The humanitarian situation remains catastrophic: 21.2 million people, 41% of Sudan's population, face acute food insecurity, 12 million have been displaced, and the UN describes Sudan as the world's largest displacement and hunger crisis. Washington is finalising a ceasefire monitoring mechanism, but Sudan's government rejected a previous US-backed framework.

What’s Been Said:

Humanitarian/International Framing - Al Jazeera, UN News, Human Rights Watch
International humanitarian bodies have been consistent and urgent in their warnings, with the UN Human Rights Office documenting a "genocidal campaign targeting non-Arab communities" in El Fasher and the ICC opening a formal war crimes probe into both parties. Al Jazeera explicitly noted the contrast between global focus on Iran and the near-total neglect of Sudan, writing that "the brutal civil war in Sudan is nearly three years long now" while the world looks elsewhere. The UN's Special Rapporteur on housing described the systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure as "domicide," calling for an immediate halt to hostilities.

Geopolitical/Diplomatic Framing - Asharq Al-Awsat, Washington Institute
Analysts have noted that neither side is ready to compromise: the SAF's recent military gains in Kordofan may harden its position against a negotiated settlement, while the RSF retains control of Darfur and its gold deposits and supply routes through Libya. The CFR reported that talks broke down in early March after a top SAF general rejected any ceasefire unless RSF forces withdrew from civilian areas, a condition the RSF is unlikely to accept, and Washington's diplomatic bandwidth for Sudan has been further reduced by the Iran war.

Why This Matters:

Sudan's war is, by almost every measure, the world's worst humanitarian crisis, yet it receives a fraction of the international attention devoted to conflicts in the Middle East or Europe, a disparity that has real and deadly consequences for the 33.7 million people the UN says are in need of humanitarian assistance. The fall of El Fasher and the documented atrocities that followed represent a potential genocide unfolding in near-silence, with the ICC probe unlikely to produce accountability in the near term and Washington's attention consumed elsewhere. The SAF's recent military gains offer a tactical shift, but no path to peace, and the risk is not just that the war continues, but that it becomes permanently normalised, with millions trapped in famine and displacement while the world looks away.

The Baseline:

  • Why does the world's largest humanitarian crisis receive so little international coverage, and does that disparity reflect something troubling about whose suffering the world chooses to notice?

  • With Washington consumed by Iran and Ukraine, who has both the will and the leverage to broker a ceasefire in Sudan?

  • Who should be responsible for taking in the refugees from this war? If anyone?

You’ve now reflected on these events, how they made you feel, what judgments you formed, and why.

That process is building your political judgement.

The Baseline

Login or Subscribe to participate

Keep Reading