The Baseline News
11 March
Facts first. Bias removed. Form your own judgement.
Today’s Headlines
Iran war enters Day 12 as three commercial ships are struck near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran vows not a single litre of oil will pass through.
32 nations agree to the largest ever emergency oil reserve release in history.
Russia emerges as a quiet winner of the Iran war, benefiting from soaring oil prices, sanctions relief, and a distracted West.
Green Party leader Zack Polanski is caught in a credibility crisis after a newly unearthed 2013 BBC interview contradicts his repeated claims that he apologised for offering breast enlargement hypnosis.
Iran launches what it calls its "most intense operation since the beginning of the war," firing advanced ballistic missiles toward Tel Aviv and Haifa.
Word of the Day: Magnanimous
Quote of the Day:
The Baseline Deep Dive
Iran War Day 12: Ships Hit, Oil Reserves Tapped, and No End in Sight
What’s Actually Happened:
On the twelfth day of the US-Israeli campaign against Iran, three commercial vessels were struck near the Strait of Hormuz. One cargo ship caught fire, and its crew evacuated. A second bulk carrier was hit northwest of Dubai, and a third container vessel reported projectile damage. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed two ships had ignored warnings, insisting US forces have "no right of passage."
In response, US Central Command destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels and confirmed strikes on over 5,500 targets inside Iran since the campaign began. The IEA announced a record 400-million-barrel emergency oil release from 32 member nations, yet prices climbed back above $88 a barrel regardless.
Iran's president set conditions for ending the war, demanding reparations and international guarantees, while newly installed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was reported wounded but safe. The regional death toll stands at over 1,200 in Iran, 570 in Lebanon, and 13 in Israel, with more than 750,000 people displaced in Lebanon alone.
What’s Been Said:
Pro-intervention framing: Fox News, The Times, Sky News, White House
The White House and right-leaning outlets have framed the Hormuz developments as proof that the campaign is working, with Trump declaring Iran's navy is "at the bottom of the sea" and encouraging oil companies to use the strait freely.
Conservative commentators argue that Iran's attempt to close the waterway is economic warfare against the world, and that the IEA reserve release demonstrates coordinated Western resolve. US Central Command strike numbers are cited as evidence of decisive, effective military action.
Anti-intervention framing: The Guardian, Al Jazeera, NBC News, NPR
Critics have focused on the humanitarian toll and strategic incoherence, pointing to the school strike in southern Iran, where fragments of a US-made Tomahawk missile were found near a site where scores of children were killed.
The IEA release failing to calm markets is cited as evidence that military action has created a crisis beyond financial remedy. Even prominent Trump supporter Joe Rogan said publicly that many of the president's base "feel betrayed," given that he ran on ending foreign wars.
Why This Matters:
Around 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's campaign to close it is an economic weapon aimed at the entire global economy. For ordinary people, this means higher fuel bills, supply chain disruption, and inflation.
The conflict is also pulling in Lebanon, the Gulf states, and indirectly Ukraine, as Patriot missile stocks are diverted from Kyiv to the Middle East. How this war ends, and on whose terms, will shape the geopolitical order for years to come.
The Baseline:
Should Europe be doing more to broker a ceasefire, or is that simply not possible while the US and Israel remain committed to continuing?
Who bears responsibility for civilian casualties when precision weapons strike schools and residential areas?
Do you see any end in sight for the war?
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Russia's Quiet Victory: Iran
What’s Actually Happened:
Before the war began, Russia's economy was under severe strain. Oil and gas revenues had collapsed from 45% of the federal budget in 2021 to around 20% in 2025, and Russia was selling oil at a discount of $10 to $13 per barrel. Since the Iran war started, prices have surged and Russian oil, previously trading below $40 a barrel in December, has nearly doubled to around $72 a barrel.
The US Treasury issued a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing India to buy Russian oil, and Trump signalled broader relief was under consideration. Multiple outlets including the Washington Post and CNN have also reported that Russia has been sharing intelligence with Iran about the locations of US warships and military assets.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is suffering directly: Patriot missile stocks are being consumed in the Middle East, and US diplomatic efforts to end the Ukraine war have been indefinitely postponed.
What’s Been Said:
Western/critical framing: The Telegraph, TIME, EU Council, The Guardian
EU Council President Antonio Costa told ambassadors bluntly that "so far, there is only one winner in this war, and that is Russia." Western analysts have outlined how higher oil prices, sanctions relief, diverted military resources, and reduced pressure on Ukraine amount to a strategic windfall for Moscow.
Analysts at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre warn that financial breathing room will make Putin less willing to negotiate on Ukraine, while foreign policy experts describe Russia's intelligence-sharing with Iran as a deliberate effort to degrade American power projection.
Russian/sceptical framing: The Moscow Times, Bloomberg, Kremlin statements
The Kremlin has condemned the strikes and claimed surging demand for Russian energy, but some analysts urge caution. The Moscow Times notes that Russia's own investments in Iran are at risk regardless of the outcome, and Bloomberg points out that the Russia-Iran relationship was always one of convenience.
Some economists also argue that the oil price spike, filtered through sanctions discounts and an unfavourable exchange rate, may not fundamentally change Russia's long-term fiscal position.
Why This Matters:
This story matters because it shows how interconnected the world's conflicts have become. A war in the Middle East is directly affecting the battlefield in Ukraine, energy bills across Europe, and the diplomatic calculations of every major power.
The fact that the US has already partially lifted sanctions on Russian oil, even temporarily, shows how quickly strategic priorities collapse when prices spike. For anyone who cares about the outcome in Ukraine or the cost of filling up their car, what happens in the Strait of Hormuz is not a distant foreign story.
The Baseline:
Is it possible to hold Russia accountable for sharing intelligence with Iran while simultaneously lifting sanctions on its oil to manage energy prices?
If Russia is the clearest winner of this war so far, what does that tell us about how the decision to strike Iran was made?
Should Europe lift sanctions to help itself during the oil crisis? Can things ever normalise between Europe and Russia?
Zach Polanski and Boob-Gate
What’s Actually Happened:
In 2013, Zack Polanski (the leader of the Green Party UK), then working as a hypnotherapist, conducted a session with a Sun journalist who requested help to increase her breast size. The resulting article described the journalist claiming her breast size had increased.
Since entering politics, Polanski has repeatedly apologised, saying he saw it as a body confidence exercise and that he went on BBC radio "the next day" to distance himself from the piece.
The BBC has now confirmed it cannot locate that interview. What it did find was a BBC Radio Humberside interview from six days later, in which Polanski described the session as "a successful project," said there was "anecdotal evidence of a growth in breast size," and confirmed he believed it "can happen in theory." This directly contradicts his claim on Good Morning Britain in 2025 that he had been "misrepresented" and had "never done it for women."
What’s Been Said:
Right-wing framing: Daily Mail, The Times, The Sun
Right-leaning outlets have treated the story as evidence of a broader pattern of dishonesty, with the Daily Mail running the headline "How bra-zen!" The Times described Polanski as a "former breast enlargement guru," and conservative commentators argue the real issue is not the hypnotherapy itself but whether a leader who has misrepresented his own past can be trusted on anything else. A Labour source was equally cutting, saying "he lied about it" and that "you can't trust a word he says."
Left-wing and sympathetic framing: The Guardian, progressive commentators
More sympathetic voices have pushed back on what some are calling "Boobgate," arguing the story is being weaponised to distract from Polanski's actual platform. The Guardian noted the session was conducted before he entered politics and that the journalist herself requested it.
Some progressive commentators argue the real issue is the inconsistency in how he has described it, not the act itself, and that the media's focus on this story while a war rages in the Middle East reflects troubling editorial priorities.
Why This Matters:
Polanski has built his political identity around authenticity and a rejection of the spin associated with mainstream politics. The gap between what he said in 2013 and what he has said more recently is not enormous, but it was entirely avoidable.
He could have been straightforwardly honest about the timeline from the start. The fact that it took a BBC archive search to surface the discrepancy will inevitably invite questions about what else he might be less than straight about, and for a party trying to establish itself as a credible political force, the timing is awkward.
The Baseline:
Does a politician's pre-political career tell us anything meaningful about how they will govern?
Is there a difference between misremembering something from 13 years ago and deliberately misrepresenting it?
Should the media be spending this much time on a story about hypnotherapy while a war is unfolding in the Middle East?
Why is the media making such a big story out of this? Are they scared of his current popularity, or is this genuinely a problem?
You’ve now reflected on these events, how they made you feel, what judgments you formed, and why.
That process is building your political judgement.
— The Baseline


