The Baseline News
5 March
Facts first. Bias removed. Form your own judgement.
Today’s Headlines
Israel launches its 11th wave of strikes on Tehran as the US-Israel war with Iran enters Day 6.
Iran fires fresh ballistic missiles at Israel and strikes a Bahrain oil refinery; a US submarine sinks an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka.
UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood offers failed asylum seeker families up to £40,000 to leave Britain voluntarily.
China opens its "Two Sessions," unveiling a 15th Five-Year Plan built around technological dominance and global ambition.
Trump demands a say in choosing Iran's next Supreme Leader as clerics scramble to find a successor to the killed Khamenei.
Word of the Day: Paraphernalia
Quote of the Day:
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The Baseline Deep Dive
Iran War - Day 6
What’s Actually Happened:
Israel completed its 11th wave of strikes on Tehran overnight, also hitting Hezbollah targets in Beirut and, for the first time, the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli. Israel has now ordered mass evacuations of entire Beirut neighbourhoods, a significant escalation beyond previous building-specific warnings. Iran retaliated with three waves of ballistic missiles toward Israel, struck a Bahrain oil refinery, and targeted Amazon data centres in Bahrain and the UAE. The US Senate voted 47–53 to reject a War Powers Resolution that would have reined in Trump's authority. The first 100 hours of the US campaign cost an estimated $3.7 billion, per CSIS. Over 1,100 civilians have been killed in Iran since Saturday. Trump told Axios that Khamenei's son would be an "unacceptable" choice as Supreme Leader and that he must be involved in the selection, a statement Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi called an outrage, warning any ground invasion would be "a big disaster" for the US.
What’s Been Said:
Pro-war/Right-wing Framing - Fox News, ILTV, Tucker Carlson, Pete Hegseth
Supporters frame Day 6 as proof that the strategy is working. Hegseth declared the US is "accelerating, not decelerating," and the Senate's rejection of the War Powers Resolution is being celebrated as a vindication of Trump's authority. Pro-Israel voices argue that Hezbollah's re-entry into the war justifies the Beirut strikes, and that evacuation orders demonstrate Israel is taking civilian protection seriously.
Anti-war/Left-wing Framing - The Guardian, Al Jazeera, Democracy Now, NPR
Critics are focused on the mounting civilian death toll and the White House's refusal to rule out that a US strike killed 168 children at a girls' school in Minab. The Guardian and Al Jazeera highlight the legal vacuum, no congressional authorisation, and a Pentagon source reportedly telling Congress there was no intelligence that Iran was planning to strike first. Trump's demand to choose Iran's next Supreme Leader has been widely condemned as an extraordinary overreach. The CIA's reported arming of Kurdish separatists has drawn further criticism, with Iraq's First Lady publicly demanding all sides "leave the Kurds alone."
Why This Matters:
The war is widening faster than most analysts predicted. The Beirut evacuation orders suggest a major operation in Lebanon may be imminent, opening a second significant front. Iran's strikes on Gulf states are pulling European nations into the conflict, whether they want to be or not. The Senate's rejection of the War Powers Resolution sets a precedent that a president can launch a major war without congressional approval. And with Gaza's crossings still closed, over 2 million Palestinians face renewed food crisis, a humanitarian emergency at risk of being entirely eclipsed.
The Baseline:
Does the scale of civilian casualties in Iran change how you view the justification for these strikes?
Should Congress have the power to stop a war the president has already started?
Do you think the US will deploy boots on the ground? Will this make it better or worse?
UK Offers Failed Asylum Seekers £40,000 to Leave
What’s Actually Happened:
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced a pilot scheme offering failed asylum seeker families up to £40,000 (£10,000 per person, capped at four per family) to leave the UK voluntarily within seven days. The broader package also makes refugee status temporary and subject to review every 30 months, and withdraws support from asylum seekers who break the law or work illegally. Mahmood cited Denmark, which has achieved the lowest asylum application numbers in 40 years and removed 95% of rejected claimants, as a model, positioning Labour between Farage's "drawbridge" and the Greens' "open borders." The announcement has triggered a backbench Labour revolt, with some MPs accusing the government of "performative cruelty."
What’s Been Said:
Right-wing Framing - Reform UK (Zia Yusuf), Conservative Party (Kemi Badenoch), LBC callers
Reform and Conservative voices have condemned the scheme as rewarding illegal entry, calling it a "prize for breaking in." LBC callers expressed fury that failed claimants could receive a sum that many working families cannot save. Reform's Yusuf argued the policy is far too soft and called for an ICE-style enforcement agency instead, with the consistent message that financial incentives will encourage more crossings, not fewer.
Left-wing Framing - Labour backbenchers, The Guardian, refugee advocacy groups
Left-wing critics attacked the scheme as cruel, ineffective, and a capitulation to right-wing pressure. The Guardian argued "Denmark is no template," citing fundamental differences in scale and legal context. Refugee groups warned the scheme could coerce genuinely vulnerable people into leaving under financial pressure, and questioned whether £40,000 per family actually saves money compared to the cost of detention and forced removal. The home secretary claims the UK spends over £150,000 a year housing a family of four and that offering failed asylum seekers money to leave will save the taxpayer.
Why This Matters:
Labour is trying to hold a centre ground on immigration that is becoming increasingly difficult to occupy. With Reform polling strongly and local elections approaching, the political pressure to act is real — but so is the risk of alienating Labour's traditional base. How this pilot performs will likely shape UK asylum policy for years to come.
The Baseline:
Is paying people to leave a pragmatic solution or a dangerous precedent? Do you agree with it?
Should refugee status ever be temporary, and who decides when it's safe to return?
Is Labour's "firm but fair" framing genuine policy, or a political calculation ahead of local elections?
China's Message to the World: "We're Winning the Future"
What’s Actually Happened:
China's annual "Two Sessions" opened this week, with the National People's Congress approving the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). The plan focuses on deploying China's advances in AI, EVs, humanoid robotics, semiconductors and 6G to transform its economy and global standing. China's GDP growth target is expected to drop below 5% for the first time, a deliberate shift toward self-reliance over raw growth. The sessions are overshadowed by a sweeping military purge: over 100 senior officers removed since 2022, including Xi's top general, under investigation for corruption. Beijing's message to the world: China's rise is a "boon" to humanity, even as Western officials warn about the risks of authoritarian technology exports.
What’s Been Said:
Pro-China / State Framing - Xinhua, China Daily, CGTN
Reform and Conservative voices have condemned the scheme as rewarding illegal entry, calling it a "prize for breaking in." LBC callers expressed fury that failed claimants could receive a sum that many working families cannot save. Reform's Yusuf argued the policy is far too soft and called for an ICE-style enforcement agency instead, with the consistent message that financial incentives will encourage more crossings, not fewer.
Critical/Western Framing - The Guardian, CNN, Brookings Institution, Tony Blair Institute
Western analysts are more sceptical. The Guardian noted the military purges raise questions about whether Xi's consolidation of power is creating dangerous blind spots in China's command structure. CNN highlighted structural economic drags: weak domestic consumption, a five-year property crisis, high youth unemployment and a shrinking population. The Tony Blair Institute's Ruby Osman warned of a "mismatch" between short-term economic goals and the longer-term strategic ambitions of the plan.
Why This Matters:
China's Five-Year Plan is a geopolitical statement as much as an economic one. At a moment when the US is at war, and the global order is in flux, Beijing is positioning itself as the stable, long-term alternative. The focus on semiconductor self-sufficiency and AI signals China intends to compete with, and potentially surpass, the US in the technologies that will define the next decade. Meanwhile, the military purges raise a separate concern: an army where loyalty to Xi matters more than competence may be less effective in a real conflict, including any future confrontation over Taiwan.
The Baseline:
Can authoritarian systems truly out-innovate open ones, or does China's model have a ceiling?
Are democratic economies at a disadvantage to authoritarian regimes? How can democracies compete?
As the US turns toward conflict, is China positioning itself as the world's stabilising force -or is that exactly what Beijing wants you to think?
You’ve now reflected on these events, how they made you feel, what judgments you formed, and why.
That process is building your political judgement.
— The Baseline


