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The Baseline News
1 March

Facts first. Bias removed. Form your own judgement.

Today’s Headlines

  • Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in US-Israeli airstrikes, over 200 dead, 10% spike in oil prices & Dubai bombed.

  • Pakistan declares "open war" on Afghanistan, launching airstrikes on Kabul and Kandahar.

  • Recent studies show that creatine supplements have dramatic cognitive and mental health benefits beyond muscle building, including potential depression relief.

Word of the Day: Limerence

Quote of the Day:

When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.

Viktor E. Frankl

The Baseline Deep Dive

Iran's Supreme Leader Killed in US-Israeli Strikes

What’s Actually Happened:

Joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeted 24 Iranian provinces, killing 201+ people. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, was killed at his Tehran office. Trump announced the death, stating Khamenei "was unable to avoid our Intelligence and Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems."

Israeli officials confirmed senior IRGC commanders and nuclear officials were also eliminated. Iran retaliated with multiple strike waves, killing 3 US soldiers. US-Israeli strikes also hit two schools, killing over 120 people. Iran declared a 40-day mourning period and activated succession procedures. Trump indicated strikes would continue "uninterrupted throughout the week."

What’s Been Said:

US/Israeli Framing - Trump Administration, Israel, US State Department
The US and Israel frame the operation as a necessary defensive measure to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Trump emphasised this was about "global security" and called it "the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country," suggesting regime change could follow.

US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz stated, "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon" is a matter of global security, not politics. Israeli officials highlighted the elimination of senior military and nuclear officials as strategic successes. The administration signalled continued military action and rejected diplomatic off-ramps, with Trump warning Iran not to retaliate further.

Iranian/International Framing - Iran, Russia, China, UN Secretary-General
Iran's UN Ambassador Amir Saied Iravani called the strikes "an unprovoked and premeditated aggression" and "a war crime and crime against humanity," noting that civilian areas in major cities were targeted. Russia condemned the strikes as aggressive and demanded immediate cessation. China expressed deep concern over the "sudden escalation."

UN Secretary-General Guterres stated an opportunity for diplomacy had been "squandered" and warned of uncontrollable chain reactions in the region. International observers emphasised the civilian toll and questioned the legality of the targeted killing of a state leader.

Why This Matters:

Khamenei's death creates unprecedented uncertainty in Iran's power structure after 37 years of his leadership. The succession process could destabilise the region further or create openings for internal reform; the outcomes remain unclear. The strikes represent a dramatic escalation from diplomatic tensions to kinetic warfare, raising risks of broader regional conflict involving proxies, allies, and potentially NATO.

Oil markets are already reacting with 10% price increases, threatening global economic stability. The precedent of eliminating a foreign leader through airstrikes without a formal declaration of war raises questions about international law, sovereignty, and future conflict escalation patterns.

The Baseline:

  • Do you think this conflict is a distraction from domestic issues in the US/Israel?

  • What are the realistic scenarios for Iran's succession, and how might each affect regional stability?

  • Are the casualties and the economic fallout worth the downfall of the Iranian regime? Do the means justify the ends?

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Pakistan-Afghanistan’s "Open War"

Conflict Context:

The Pakistan–Taliban conflict centres on Pakistan’s fight against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an Islamist militant group formed in 2007, that seeks to overthrow the Pakistani state and impose its version of Islamic law. The conflict intensified after TTP militants carried out major attacks inside Pakistan, prompting large-scale military operations in the tribal regions along the Afghan border. Despite setbacks, the TTP has remained resilient, aided by cross-border sanctuaries and shifting dynamics after the return of the Afghan Taliban to power in Afghanistan in 2021, keeping the conflict ongoing and unstable.

What’s Actually Happened:

Pakistan's Defence Minister announced "open war" with Afghanistan and launched airstrikes on Kabul and Kandahar, targeting what Pakistan claimed were Taliban military installations. Pakistan reported killing 297 Afghan fighters, with 2 Pakistani security personnel killed. Afghanistan's Taliban government disputed these figures.

Afghanistan claimed to have downed a Pakistani fighter jet and captured its pilot—claims Pakistan denied. The conflict followed Taliban attacks on Pakistani border positions. Pakistan's Information Minister stated that airstrikes "completely destroyed" military targets. The Pakistani stock market dropped over 3,000 points intraday before recovering. UN Secretary-General Guterres called for an immediate ceasefire.

What’s Been Said:

Pakistan's Framing - Pakistan Defence Ministry, Trump Administration
Pakistan frames the strikes as justified "counter-strikes" in response to unprovoked Taliban attacks along the border. Officials emphasise they targeted military installations, not civilians, and claim significant casualties inflicted on Taliban forces.

The US State Department, through Undersecretary Allison Hooker, expressed "support for Pakistan's right to defend itself against Taliban attacks." President Trump stated he "gets along very well" with Pakistan and praised its leadership, effectively endorsing Pakistan's military response without committing to intervention.

Afghanistan/International Framing - Taliban Government, UN, Russia, China, India
The Taliban disputes Pakistan's casualty claims and asserts it inflicted heavier losses on Pakistani forces. Afghanistan's government frames Pakistan's strikes as violations of sovereignty during Ramadan. Russia urged both sides to halt cross-border attacks and resolve differences diplomatically. China expressed deep concern over escalation. India "strongly" condemned Pakistan's airstrikes, noting they occurred during the holy month.

The UN called for an immediate ceasefire and de-escalation. Iran offered to mediate between the two countries. International observers note the conflict reflects long-standing border tensions and Taliban-Pakistan relations deteriorating since the Taliban's 2021 takeover.

Why This Matters:

This represents the most serious military escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan in recent years, with the potential to destabilise South Asia. The conflict threatens regional security, refugee flows, and could draw in neighbouring powers. Pakistan's military action signals its patience with Taliban-harboured militant groups has ended, but risks creating a prolonged conflict with no clear exit strategy.

The disputed casualty figures and claims (downed jet, captured pilot) suggest information warfare, complicating ceasefire negotiations. Economic impacts are already visible in Pakistan's stock market volatility. The conflict occurs amid broader Middle Eastern tensions, potentially diverting international attention from mediation efforts.

The Baseline:

  • Considering the historical conflict in Afghanistan, how do you agree with this conflict?

  • Should external powers like the US or UN intervene militarily, or is diplomatic mediation the only viable path?

  • How might this conflict affect regional powers like China, Russia, and Iran?

Creatine's Surprising Health Benefits Beyond Muscle Building

What’s Actually Happened:

Recent studies suggest that creatine, the world's most researched supplement and a compound produced by the body and found in meat and fish, may benefit brain and mental health beyond muscle growth. A 2024 study by Ali Gordjinejad found that a single high dose (35g) improved processing speed and short-term memory in sleep-deprived individuals within hours.

Other research links creatine to improved depression outcomes, reduced brain fog in long Covid, potential cancer risk reduction in adults over 52, and possible benefits for Alzheimer’s disease, menopause symptoms, and fetal protection during oxygen deprivation. However, a 2024 review by Terry McMorris reported mixed evidence, citing inconsistent study designs.

What’s Been Said:

Supportive Framing - BBC, Harvard Health, UCLA Health, academic researchers
Supporters emphasise creatine’s role in cellular energy production and its potential to address brain energy deficits during stress, illness, or ageing. Some researchers argue it should be considered “semi-essential,” particularly for vegans who consume little dietary creatine. Early findings are framed as promising, low-cost interventions with a strong safety record when used appropriately.

Cautious/Critical Framing - Terry McMorris, medical professionals
Critics stress that cognitive benefits are not yet proven and that existing studies vary widely in quality. High doses may cause gastrointestinal distress, water retention, and cramping, and creatine is not recommended for people with kidney or liver disease. Pregnancy safety remains unconfirmed, and rare serious adverse events have been reported.

Why This Matters:

If confirmed, creatine could become a low-cost tool for addressing depression, cognitive decline, post-viral fatigue, and age-related muscle loss, especially in aging populations and vegans. However, inconsistent evidence and safety concerns mean it is not yet ready for public health recommendations, underscoring the need for more rigorous research.

The Baseline:

  • Should creatine be classified as a semi-essential nutrient?

  • What study designs are needed to clearly establish cognitive benefits?

  • Should we first rely on nutrients from food before food supplementation?

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