The Baseline News
2 March

Facts first. Bias removed. Form your own judgement.

Today’s Headlines

  • US and Israel launch massive strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei; six US service members killed in ongoing operations.

  • UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer refuses to join offensive strikes on Iran, citing Iraq lessons and international law concerns; Trump publicly criticizes decision.

  • France announces first increase in nuclear warheads since 1992 and will deploy nuclear aircraft to eight European allies amid security concerns.

  • Iranian missiles strike Dubai and Gulf states, shattering the emirate's image as a safe haven for expats and international business.

Word of the Day: Deleterious

Quote of the Day:

The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.

JFK

The Baseline Deep Dive

Iran: Escalation and Casualties

What’s Actually Happened:

As of 2 March, at least 555 people have been killed in Iran according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, with additional casualties reported across the region. Six US service members have been killed in action, with Pentagon officials warning more deaths are likely. President Trump stated the operation is projected to last 4-5 weeks but could extend longer, with the stated goal of destroying Iran's missile capability and preventing nuclear weapons development.

What’s Been Said:

Right-wing Framing - Fox News, Sky News, Conservative commentators
Conservative outlets and Trump administration officials frame the strikes as a necessary defensive action against an imminent threat. Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth emphasised this is "not Iraq" and "not endless," stressing the operation has "clear, devastating, decisive" objectives: destroy the missile threat, destroy the navy, and prevent nuclear weapons.

They characterise the operation as surgical and focused, not nation-building or regime change. Some conservative commentators downplay concerns about escalation, arguing the strikes demonstrate American resolve and deter future Iranian aggression. However, some right-wing voices express concern about the costs of prolonged conflict, particularly given Trump's campaign promises to end US foreign wars.

Left-wing Framing - The Guardian, CNN, MSNBC, progressive commentators
Progressive outlets and Democratic critics question the legal and strategic justification for the strikes. They argue the administration has not provided evidence of an imminent threat required under US law and international law for military action. Critics (includng many of those within MAGA) point out that Trump previously promised to end "endless wars" and focus on domestic priorities, viewing the Iran operation as contradicting that pledge.

Some progressive commentators worry the strikes will trigger regional escalation, destabilise the Middle East further, and draw the US into a prolonged conflict with unpredictable consequences. They emphasise the humanitarian toll, over 500 deaths in Iran, and question whether military action advances long-term US interests. Some also note the operation benefits Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's long-standing goal of regime change in Iran, raising questions about whose interests are being served.

Why This Matters:

The conflict risks destabilising the entire Middle East, affecting global oil markets, regional security arrangements, and the balance of power between the US, Israel, and Iran. The conflict has already expanded to include Hezbollah in Lebanon and threatens to draw in other regional actors. For the US, the operation tests Trump's stated commitment to avoiding foreign entanglements while demonstrating military capability. The human cost, both American and Iranian, and the potential for miscalculation or unintended escalation make this a pivotal moment in geopolitics. How this conflict is resolved will shape Middle Eastern stability, US credibility, and the future of nuclear diplomacy for years to come.

The Baseline:

  • Do you believe the US and Israel had sufficient legal justification for military action without an imminent threat?

  • What are the realistic outcomes of a 4-5 week military campaign, and what happens if objectives aren't achieved?

  • Does this benefit Israel or the US more?

UK Refuses to Join Offensive Strikes: Starmer's Iraq Lesson

What’s Actually Happened:

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that the UK will not join US and Israeli offensive strikes on Iran, though he permitted the US to conduct defensive strikes from RAF bases to protect British interests and personnel. Starmer cited lessons from the Iraq War, emphasising that any UK military action must have a "lawful basis" and a "viable thought-through plan." The UK allowed defensive operations from RAF bases but refused to participate in offensive strikes aimed at destroying Iranian missile storage sites.

Trump publicly criticised Starmer's decision, saying he was "very disappointed" and suggesting the PM was "worried about the legality." Starmer defended his position in Parliament, stating the UK's focus should be on a negotiated settlement and that Britain has 300,000 citizens in the Gulf region requiring protection. The decision marks a rare break between the US and UK on military action, with Trump expressing frustration at the delay and conditions.

What’s Been Said:

Right-wing Framing - Conservative Party, Sky News, Conservative commentators
Conservative critics, including opposition leader Kemi Badenoch, argue Starmer is weak and using international law as cover for indecision. They contend that allies like Australia and other nations clearly stated their support for the US-Israel action, making the UK's hesitation appear timid.

Conservatives suggest Starmer made a U-turn only after Iran's retaliation became clear, implying political calculation rather than principle. Some right-wing commentators argue that international law concerns are overblown and that the UK should stand firmly with its closest ally, the US. They frame Starmer's caution as undermining the special relationship and weakening Western resolve against Iranian aggression.

Left-wing Framing - The Guardian, Labour backbenchers, international law experts
Progressive voices largely support Starmer's decision, praising his restraint and adherence to international law. They argue that the Iraq War demonstrated the dangers of joining military action without a clear legal justification or an exit strategy. Left-leaning commentators note that Trump's criticism of Starmer actually validates the PM's concern about legality; if the operation were clearly lawful, Trump wouldn't object to legal scrutiny.

Some progressives argue the UK should use its position to push for diplomatic solutions rather than military escalation. They emphasise that protecting British citizens doesn't require offensive strikes and that defensive measures are sufficient. International law experts cited by left-wing outlets argue that offensive strikes without imminent threat or UN authorisation are legally questionable.

Why This Matters:

Starmer's decision reflects a fundamental tension in Western alliance politics: balancing loyalty to allies with adherence to international law and domestic political concerns. The UK's refusal to join offensive operations signals that even close US allies have limits on their military commitments, particularly when the legal justification is unclear. This matters because it affects the scope and legitimacy of the military campaign and sets a precedent for future conflicts.

For the UK, the decision protects against legal liability and domestic political backlash but risks straining the US relationship. For the broader conflict, it suggests not all Western nations view the operation as justified, potentially complicating diplomatic efforts and international support. The Iraq War analogy is significant- Starmer's invocation of it reflects deep public and political concern about repeating past mistakes.

The Baseline:

  • How important is the UK-US ‘Special Relationship’? Is it still relevant today?

  • How does Starmer’s position make you feel?

  • Should the UK allow the US to utilise their bases, even if there are questions about the legality of US strikes?

France Increases Nuclear Arsenal

What’s Actually Happened:

French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will increase its nuclear warhead arsenal for the first time since 1992 and will allow temporary deployment of nuclear-armed aircraft to eight European allies: Germany, Britain, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, and Denmark. Macron introduced the concept of "advanced deterrence," a structured nuclear-security relationship distinct from but complementary to NATO arrangements. France currently maintains approximately 290 nuclear warheads, the world's fourth-largest arsenal.

Macron also announced that France will no longer publicly disclose the size of its nuclear arsenal, reversing decades of transparency. The announcement was framed as a response to a "hardening world" with rising threats from Russia and China, as well as regional instability, particularly in the Middle East. Macron stated: "To be free, one needs to be feared," emphasising that European strategic autonomy requires independent nuclear capability.

What’s Been Said:

Right-wing Framing - Conservative commentators, some NATO officials
Conservative voices generally support France's nuclear expansion as a necessary response to Russian aggression and growing global instability. They view it as Europe taking greater responsibility for its own defence, particularly given the uncertainty about US commitment under Trump.

Some right-wing commentators praise Macron for strengthening European deterrence and reducing dependence on US nuclear guarantees. However, some conservatives express concern about nuclear proliferation and the precedent of increasing arsenals. A few right-wing voices worry that France's independent nuclear strategy could complicate NATO unity or create friction with the US.

Left-wing Framing - Peace activists, some European progressives, arms control advocates
Progressive critics express concern about nuclear weapons expansion and the arms race implications. They argue that increasing warheads contradicts disarmament goals and sets a dangerous precedent in an already tense geopolitical environment. Some left-wing commentators worry that France's move could trigger similar expansions by other powers, destabilising global security.

However, some European progressives acknowledge the legitimate security concerns driving Macron's decision, particularly regarding Russian threats and US reliability. They argue the focus should be on diplomatic solutions and arms control rather than nuclear expansion. Environmental and peace groups emphasise the risks of nuclear weapons and advocate for disarmament instead.

Why This Matters:

France's nuclear expansion signals a fundamental shift in European security strategy: reduced reliance on US nuclear guarantees and increased emphasis on European strategic autonomy. This matters because it reflects European concerns about Trump's commitment to NATO and the need for independent deterrence. The decision also signals that the Middle East conflict and broader global instability are driving major powers to strengthen military capabilities. The announcement also reflects European anxiety about the US-Iran conflict potentially spreading to Europe or destabilising the region further. Macron's framing of "advanced deterrence" suggests Europe is preparing for a more multipolar, contested world where independent military capability is essential for sovereignty.

The Baseline:

  • Does France's nuclear expansion strengthen European security or trigger a destabilising arms race?

  • Should every country have the right to build its own nuclear programme?

  • Should Europe pursue independent nuclear deterrence or maintain reliance on NATO and US guarantees?

You’ve now reflected on these events, how they made you feel, what judgments you formed, and why.

That process is building your political judgement.

The Baseline

Login or Subscribe to participate

Keep Reading