The Baseline News
29 January
Facts first. Bias removed. Form your own judgement.
Today’s Headlines
The US Federal Reserve holds interest rates at their current level, signalling caution as inflation cools. Sounds boring, but stick around to find out why this matters!
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer begins a high-profile visit to China, the first by a British leader in eight years. Could it have come at a worse or better time?
Protests continue across Iran as security forces maintain a heavy crackdown, as Trump warns of a massive ‘Armada’ heading Iran’s way.
Internal conflict inside the Labour Party deepens, with public disagreements spilling into view.
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady
What’s Been Said:
International reporting - Reuters, Bloomberg
The U.S. Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged at its first meeting of 2026. Officials said prices are still rising faster than they want (inflation), and the economy is doing reasonably well, so they decided not to raise or cut the main interest rate right now.
Market reaction - Bloomberg
Global markets reacted calmly to the announcement. Stock markets moved only slightly, and the U.S. dollar remained stable, despite the dollar's weakening in recent days. Investors were not surprised by the decision and are now focused on clues about when rates might eventually come down later in the year.
Political Reaction (Pressure to Cut) - Forbes
Global markets reacted calmly to the announcement. Stock markets moved only slightly, and the U.S. dollar remained stable, despite the dollar's weakening in recent days. Investors were not surprised by the decision and are now focused on clues about when rates might eventually come down later in the year.
Political Reaction (Defending Independence) - Reuters, Financial Express
Others defended the Fed’s decision as responsible and independent. They argue the central bank should focus on controlling inflation, not responding to political pressure. Supporters say holding rates steady shows the Fed is prioritising long-term economic stability over short-term gains.
What’s Actually Happened:
The Fed left rates where they are and avoided giving clear guidance on future cuts or increases.
Why This Matters:
Interest rates affect how expensive it is to borrow money. When rates stay high, loans, credit cards, and mortgages stay expensive. By holding rates steady, the Fed is trying to slow inflation without damaging the economy too much. It’s a balancing act between keeping prices under control and avoiding a slowdown.
Because the U.S. dollar and U.S. financial system sit at the centre of the global economy, Fed decisions ripple worldwide. They affect exchange rates, global investment, borrowing costs in other countries, and even food and energy prices. That’s why markets around the world watch these announcements closely, even when nothing changes.
The Baseline:
Is this careful decision-making, or just hesitation?
Who gains and who loses when interest rates stay high?
Should central banks worry only about prices, or also about people’s lives?
Starmer’s Historic China Visit
What’s Been Said:
International reporting - Reuters, BBC News
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has landed in Beijing, becoming the first UK leader to visit China since 2018. The trip is aimed at strengthening economic and diplomatic ties with China at a time when global powers are navigating shifting alliances and uncertain relations with the United States. Starmer is leading a large delegation of business and cultural representatives and is expected to meet China’s top leaders to talk about trade and cooperation.
Supporter’s Framing - ITV News, Sky News
Supporters say this visit is a smart, pragmatic step for the UK. They argue that China is a major global economy, Britain’s third-largest trading partner and engaging directly is important for jobs, exports, and investment. Starmer’s team says the trip shows the UK is serious about building stable, long-term relationships and not just relying on old alliances. They also highlight that Starmer plans to raise concerns where needed but not ignore opportunities.
Critic’s Framing- NY Post Opinion, The Guardian
Critics, from opposition politicians to human rights groups, are wary of the visit. They say China’s government poses national security risks, including alleged spying and interference, and point to concerns about human rights abuses. Some fear that focusing too much on trade and business could weaken the UK’s stance on these issues. Others argue Starmer is being too soft, or that the visit comes at the wrong time.
What’s Actually Happened:
Keir Starmer has begun a visit to China, becoming the first UK prime minister to do so in eight years. He is meeting Chinese leaders to reset relations and discuss trade and cooperation after a long period of strained ties.
Why This Matters:
This visit matters because China is one of the world’s most powerful countries, and how the UK positions itself with Beijing can shape Britain’s economy, security, and global standing. Trade deals or tighter economic ties could boost UK businesses, but disagreements over security and human rights could strain relations with allies like the United States and EU partners. How Starmer balances these priorities will influence Britain’s foreign policy direction for years.
The Baseline:
Can economic cooperation exist without political trust?
Is engagement a smart reset or a step back?
What does a realistic China policy look like now?
Is this good or bad timing? Why?
Iranian Protests continues
What’s Been Said:
Iranian reporting - Radio Farda, Iranian State Media
Iran’s government has dismissed the protests as dangerous and claims they are being encouraged by foreign enemies. Officials say security measures are necessary to maintain order and protect the state. State media focuses on unrest and property damage, while internet and phone restrictions limit independent reporting inside the country.
Western Reporting - Al Jazeera, US Official Statement
Western governments and human rights groups have condemned Iran’s response to the protests. They accuse authorities of using excessive force, violating basic rights, and silencing dissent. Some countries have called for investigations and discussed further sanctions against Iranian officials.
What’s Actually Happened:
Protests that began in late December over economic hardship have spread across Iran, met by a heavy government crackdown, mass arrests, and internet shutdowns. At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump has warned Iran that a large U.S. naval force, described as an “armada”, is moving toward the region, urging Tehran to negotiate. Iran has rejected talks under threat, and the military build-up has added to already high regional tensions.
Why This Matters:
The protests reveal deep frustration inside Iran over both economic conditions and political control. The government’s harsh response shows how seriously it views the threat. What happens next will affect Iran’s internal stability, its relations with other countries, and the wider human rights situation in the region.
The Baseline:
Can repression hold indefinitely?
When does quiet resistance become dangerous?
How much influence does the outside world really have?
What should the global response be?
Labour Party Divisions Grow
What’s Been Said:
‘Neutral’ reporting - Reuters, Yahoo News UK
Tensions are rising inside the Labour Party as disagreements emerge over leadership, direction, and candidate selection. A recent decision by party leadership to block Andy Burnham from contesting a by-election has angered some members, while polling suggests growing unease within Labour about where the party is heading under Keir Starmer.
Left-leaning framing - LabourList, Survation Polling
Many on the Labour left argue the party has drifted away from core progressive values under Keir Starmer. They point to surveys showing nearly half of members believe the party is heading in the wrong direction and say that stringent controls over candidate selection weaken grassroots influence and alienate activists.
Right-leaning framing - Reuters
Conservative and right‑of‑centre commentators portray these internal disputes as evidence of weakness and instability at the heart of Labour. They argue that infighting and visible member dissatisfaction could push voters toward rival parties- particularly Reform UK, and damage Labour’s electoral prospects more broadly.
What’s Actually Happened:
Labour blocked Andy Burnham from running in the Gorton and Denton by-election, causing pushback from MPs and activists. Polls show many members are unhappy with the party’s leadership and direction.
Why This Matters:
A party that appears divided and in disagreement can struggle to govern effectively or inspire voters. These disputes come at a critical time, with a by‑election approaching and other parties (especially Reform UK gaining traction.) How Labour manages internal dissent will influence its credibility with the public, its ability to pass policy, and its chances at future elections.
The Baseline:
Is internal conflict healthy or harmful?
Should unity come before principle?
How much disagreement can a party survive?
What should Labour do?
You’ve now reflected on these events, how they made you feel, what judgments you formed, and why.
That process is building your political judgement.
— The Baseline